Recent developments in Jammu region as well as the Kashmir valley over the issue of allotment of land for the Amranath Shrine Board have taken serious turn not only for Jammu and Kashmir but for the country as a whole owing to communal overtones that accompanied it because of petty vote politics played by certain political parties. Nevertheless, Kashmir issue has always been in the news for one reason or the other but this time the burning cauldron hogged the limelight for wrong reasons.
On an average, the Jammu region had remained almost an oasis of calmness even when the valley was burning either due to terrorist violence or imposition of curfew or owing to protests/bandhs called by front organizations representing different interests.
A brief history of the Amarnath land dispute is worth recalling here. The Shri Amarnath Shrine Board (SASB) came into existence in 2001, when Farooq Abdullah was the chief minister. In 2005, the then governor of J&K, S.K. Sinha, as chairman of the board, wrote to chief minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed asking for land to accommodate the rising number of pilgrims. The forest minister passed an order allotting 40 hectares of land to SASB for temporary use.
While the government awaited clearance from various agencies, someone moved the high court for speedy allotment of land to the board. The court asked the state Government to permit the SASB to develop the forest land for the Amarnath pilgrims. Following an appeal by the state, a division bench of the court amended the earlier order stating that the use of the land “would remain limited for the duration of the yatra.”
Nothing much happened for the next three years. In June 2008, the Ghulam Nabi Azad cabinet approved unanimously “the diversion of forest land measuring 39.88 hectares for raising prefabricated structures only for camping purposes of pilgrims without going in for construction of permanent structures”.
The order also made it clear that “the proprietary status of the land shall remain unchanged” and it will be “returned to the Forest Department when it is no longer required by the SASB”. A deceptive calm followed, and it lasted just two days.
Until 1989, the Amarnath pilgrimage used to attract about 20,000 people who travelled to the Amarnath cave over a period of about two weeks. In 1990, when the overtly Islamic militant uprising in the Valley coincided with the spread of virulent Hindutva in the Indian plains, the number of pilgrims began to increase exponentially. By 2008, more than 5,00,000 pilgrims visited the Amarnath cave in large groups, their passage often sponsored by Indian business houses. To many people in the Valley, this dramatic increase in numbers was seen as an aggressive political statement by an increasingly Hindu-fundamentalist Indian State.
The issue of land transfer was viewed as the thin edge of the wedge and proved instrumental in triggering an apprehension that it was the beginning of an elaborate plan to build Israeli-style settlements, and change the demography of the Valley. The vested interests in the Valley launched the campaign, quite incendiary in nature, that the Hindus were coming, it’s cultural invasion, it’s demographic sabotage, the land will be used for permanent settlement. However, the state Government, on its part, failed to convince the Valley that there was no transfer of ownership and it proved to be a fatal communication gap.
The separatists/or secessionists in the Valley had been waiting for a provocation and they got one. Leaders like Syed Ali Shah Geelani and Mirwaiz Umar Farooq hit the streets. National Conference President Omar Abdullah and PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti, driven by the fear of losing their political space in the Valley to the Hurriyat, joined the anti-national movement and demanded the revocation of the order.
Mehbooba threatened withdrawal of support to the Government if the order was not revoked by 30 June 2008. Azad succumbed to the pressures. Sinha was replaced by N.N. Vohra, a former home secretary as the new governor of J&K and he revoked the order. The UPA government was in a hurry to win trust vote in the Parliament and as such every vote was important for it, including Mehbooba’s and Omar’s.
In recent months the BJP had been looking for an issue to bank upon and the revocation of land issue was offered to it on the platter. The BJP, along with RSS and VHP spearheaded the agitation in Jammu demanding restoration of the land. The RSS and VHP combine seem disinterested in allowing the BJP to capitalize the present situation as they feel that the BJP did little for the uplift of the people of Jammu during the six years of NDA rule. The duo is also averse to BJP’s hectic role in the present ongoing movement because the BJP cashed in on the Ram mandir movement but failed to build the promised temple at Ayodhya during its six years in power.
Under the present circumstances which resemble a turf war, the RSS-VHP combine may disallow the BJP to gain leadership of their agitation in Jammu. The VHP leader Praveen Togadia has said: “ This is a religious agitation. Anyone willing to fly a tricolour and a bhagwa jhanda can come, but no one flying a party flag. This is not political.”
Shri Amarnath Yatra Sangarsh Samiti now spearheads the agitation in Jammu and the recent meeting between the governor and the Samiti members augurs well for restoring normalcy in Jammu region. But a single meeting is not enough and series of meetings can only help resolve the issue albeit temporarily. The land issue may be resolved sooner or later, provided all concerned parties are willing to do so sincerely.
The Fall-out
The more serious question has been the emotional and cultural divide between Jammu and the Valley that has erupted as an aftermath of this agitation. The so-called economic blockade initiated by the agitators in Jammu has only helped the mobilization of anti-India and pro-Pakistan sentiment in the Valley. What Pakistan could not do for the past six decades, the short-sighted politicians have done it within a couple of months.
The all-party meeting called by the UPA Government to resolve the Jammu unrest and bridge the J&K divide was indeed overdue. While it is true that differences did surface between the BJP, which projected the feelings of the agitators in Jammu demanding immediate restoration of forest land to the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board (SASB), and the PDP and NC, which highlighted the public sentiments in the Kashmir Valley, such divergences were quite natural in the circumstances as those mirrored the J&K divide that has been lately brought about as a result of the ill-conceived steps taken by the authorities betraying knee-jerk responses at periods of crisis.
India’s political establishment has shown a rare unanimity in its response to the protests in Jammu and Kashmir. In a joint appeal for peace and normalcy, as many as 36 political parties—the two main formation UPA and NDA and almost every regional party represented in Parliament—underlined that “communalization of the situation should be prevented at all cost as this would adversely impact on the secular fabric of the nation. But this apart, the meeting called for immediately initiating a dialogue with the protesters and agitators in Jammu—the Governor was asked to form a committee of distinguished personalities of the region who would talk to the Shri Amarnath Yatra Sangharsh Samiti leaders spearheading the movement in Jammu. What is more, it was decided that an all-party delegation would expeditiously visit Jammu to hold discussions with the Samiti representatives so as to “facilitate the suspension of the agitation and its peaceful resolution”.
However, as past experience shows, all such moves begin on an encouraging note but frequently lead to nowhere in the absence of effective follow-up action. It is here that the people’s representatives have shown the requisite sense of urgency. On the night of August 6 itself the Governor set up the panel for holding talks with the Shri Amarnath Sangharsh Samiti—this promptitude was also reflected earlier when he ensured the resignation of members of the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board so that it could be reconstituted.
In this regard the steps suggested by Prof Amitabh Mattoo, the Vice-Chancellor of the Jammu University and one of the panel members, as published in a national daily, merit serious attention: (a) the need for the Kashmir civil society to introspect and reflect on the Amarnath yatra, a part and parcel of the Kashmiris and their composite tradition for over a century; (a) recognition by the civil society of Jammu of the substantive contribution of the Kashmiris to the sanctity of the yatra and the harmonious manner of the conduct of the pilgrimage for so many decades; © the launching of dialogue between representatives of the Shri Amarnath Yatra Sangharsh Samiti and Kashmir’s Action Committee so as to bring about real reconciliation of hearts and minds.
And thereafter he makes a passionate appeal:
Under the prevailing precarious circumstances the possibility of the dormant militant groups being reactivated is not ruled out. Intelligence sources as cited in the media say the Hizbul Mujahideen, the Lashkar-e-Toiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammed still have some presence in Kashmir. “The fact that militancy came down by 70 per cent only means they are currently not active—and not that they have disappeared. They have been maintaining a low profile in recent years because of a lack of interest from across the border.”
Economic Dimensions
According to broad estimates, Jammu and Kashmir is the most pampered state in India. Since the onset of militancy in 1990, the state has managed to get the lion’s share of Central resources-over Rs 35,571.3 crore in grants and assistance. In 2001-2, Jammu and Kashmir got Rs 4,577 crore from the Centre or over 10 per cent of the assistance to states. It has got more than any other state every year since 1995. Added to this are projects in the state worth over Rs 25,000 crore being funded by the Centre.
A Kashmiri gets eight times more money from the Centre than citizens from other states. While per capita Central assistance to other states moved from Rs 576.24 in 1992-93 to Rs 1,137 in 2000-1, that of the Kashmiri spiralled from Rs 3,197 to Rs 8,092. To get a perspective, translate the numbers: if this cash, managed by the state Government, were to be dispatched by money order, each Kashmiri family (with five members on an average) would get Rs 40,460 every year.
Viewed in broad spectrum, Jammu and Kashmir cannot sustain itself without the Centre’s support. In 2001-2, the state spent Rs 7,516.6 crore of which Rs 4,577 crore-or 60 paise of every rupee spent-came from the Centre. The state’s non-development expenditure was Rs 2,829 crore including a salary bill of Rs 1,193 crore while its own revenues were barely Rs 1,095 crore. The state could not have paid even the wages of its employees without the Centre’s help.
Some in Jammu and Kashmir could argue that the state can look after its affairs given its high-value addition exports of handicrafts, its unchallenged position as a tourist attraction and, of course, the export of fruits and flowers. One could perhaps say that the strife and terror may have affected the state’s budget. But it was almost unlikely for the Valley to have managed an expenditure budget of over Rs 7,500 crore on its own steam. In any case, in a perverse way, the conflict has contributed to the state’s GDP. The 5.5 lakh security forces deployed in Jammu and Kashmir are willing buyers who add to its consumer base both for local and manufactured produce. Interestingly per capita consumption expenditure in Jammu and Kashmir had shot up from Rs 134 per month in the 1980s to Rs 746 in 2000.
Undeniably, even the security-related expenditure incurred by the state is reimbursed by the Centre. According to one report, between 1990 and 2002, the Centre paid Jammu and Kashmir Rs 2,432.59 crore as grants-in-aid. In fact, the Centre also pays for the financial assistance to Kashmiri migrants, the ex gratia paid to people killed in terrorist acts and public works related to security. Plus, while other states get Central assistance in the ratio of 70 per cent debt to 30 per cent grant, Jammu and Kashmir (as a special category state) got 90 per cent of its assistance as grant and only 10 per cent as debt. Since 1997-98-though the Comptroller and Auditor-General has indicted the state Government for misuse of plan funds-even the 10 per cent repayment criteria has been removed and the Centre has been funding the entire plan expenditure of Jammu and Kashmir or Rs 11,400 crore in five years.
According to an ACNielsen opinion poll conducted in early 2002, only 1 per cent of the respondents favoured being a part of Pakistan. Earlier in May 2002, London-based Mori International, an independent research outfit, along with facts Worldwide asked respondents from the strife-torn state to choose between India and Pakistan. Sixty-one per cent of the Kashmiris polled asserted that they would “be better off politically and economically as an Indian citizen” and only 6 per cent favoured a switch to Pakistani citizenship.
In order to appreciate the sentiments, one needs to ponder over the conditions in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir or what Pakistan refers to as Azad Kashmir. A July 2002 World Bank report provides a view:
88 per cent of the territory’s 2.9 million people live in rural areas dependent on forestry and agriculture.
Unemployment ranges at 35 per cent to 50 per cent.
Per capita income is $185-200 (about Rs 9,500).
Literacy is only 48 per cent and has only recently risen from the earlier 10 per cent.
60 per cent of the population has no direct access to water supply.
Significantly, this is the scenario despite the territory not having to face terror like Jammu and Kashmir. In early 2002, the Pakistan Government unveiled a Khushal Kashmir Programme with a corpus of Rs 28.9 crore. This could be compared with the Rs 6,165 crore package announced by the NDA government in May 2002 on this side of the border.
Besides, Jammu and Kashmir has the lowest poverty level in the country. The number of people living below the poverty line has dropped from 24.24 per cent in the 1980s to a mere 3.46 lakh people (3.48 per cent), compared to 26.10 per cent across India though the state’s contribution to the GDP was less than 1 per cent in 2000-1. If the literacy rate is lower than the national average of 64.38 per cent at 54.46 (but higher than that of PoK) it is due to the gutting of school buildings by terrorists. Also agriculture (average yield is 1,728 kg per hectare) has not suffered despite the strife thanks partially to the Rs 804 crore aid from the Centre’s Rural Development Department.
In terms of autonomy Jammu and Kashmir is the only state with its own constitution, privileges under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution and it even banks with the J&K Bank, not the RBI like other states. If the Kashmiris feel alienated it has more to do with the quality of local administration.
Uncertain Future
The past history of over six decades does not reflect a healthy picture about the state of affairs pervading Jammu and Kashmir which continues to be the main bone of contention between India and Pakistan. Apart from bilateral acrimony over Kashmir issue, both New Delhi and Islamabad have been judging other countries as either friend or foe from the Kashmir angle. Since the implementation of the Shimla Agreement in July 1972, the J&K became a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan and the great powers, especially those who supported Pakistan on Kashmir, began to acknowledge India as a regional power in South Asia and accordingly their attitude on Kashmir also underwent gradual transformation and they accepted the ground reality of Kashmir a bilateral issue to be resolved within the framework of Shimla agreement.
The post-Cold War period has seen change in the attitude of United States, UK, France, China and many other countries on the issue of Kashmir. Pakistan’s hectic efforts to elicit external support to its stand on Kashmir issue and its endeavours to internationalize this issue have not met with desired results. Rather it has received advice to seek its solution through peaceful negotiations with India.
These developments have brought Pakistan to the negotiating table and on some occasions even sincere efforts have also been discerned by the observers. However, Kashmir continues to evade permanent solution, partly may be due to the fact that both India and Pakistan are not that serious to resolve it as it is the ammunition for fuelling internal controversy in their respective constituencies to retain power.
The restoration of civilian government in Pakistan and the resultant ouster of General Pervez Musharraf augur well for India to strengthen its friendly relations with Pakistan and continue the process of peaceful negotiations that had been set in motion by the outgoing ruler. Past experience shows that even civilian rule in Pakistan cannot survive without India-bashing. The present ruling clique in Islamabad is currently mired in internal squabbles and once it fastens its grip over the reins of power, Kashmir issue will be used as a stick to bash India. How India meets such an eventuality is yet to be seen.
Much depends on the manner the Government of India handles the domestic politics in the Valley. Current fragile situation in the state should not be allowed to continue for long because it provides fertile ground for Pakistan’s ISI to fish in troubled waters of the Valley where it has already got a foothold through the militant groups and their sympathizers.
There is a dire need for a strong government at the Centre in India which does not succumb to ‘minority appeasement’ politics but handles the situation from a bargaining position. The attempts to create wedge between Jammu and Kashmir, communalization of a petty issue and separatists’ attempts to exploit the situation to their advantage as well as ISI’s nefarious designs to reactivate militancy by encouraging clandestine infiltration need to be handled with a stern hand. It also devolves on all political parties, national as well as regional ones, not to exploit the precarious situation in J&K for their myopic petty gains at the expense of national interest.
*Author is strategic Analyst , expert on Kashmir Issues
*www.focusglobalreporter.com
