By Dr Arvind Kumar
The Indo-Pacific region is characterized by the emergence of Quad and now coming into being of the AUKUS, also designated as Asian NATO, comprising Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, has proved instrumental in adding a new dimension to this characterization. Viewed in a broad spectrum, the Indo-Pacific region is gradually being pushed into the vortex of geopolitics where the member countries of the region are getting pitted against China’s display of flexed muscles, and as a result of this the region’s potential in triggering an arms race in the near future cannot be ruled out and in that eventuality the region also runs the risk of being pushed into a grim and tense situation. Recently concluded agreement between Australia on the one hand and UK and the US on the other, to supply nuclear-fueled and conventionally armed submarine fleet to Australia by UK and the US, now popularly called AUKUS, reminds the observers of the ANZUS of the Cold War days.
The avowed objective of the formation of the AUKUS is said to be to thwart nefarious expansionist designs of China and ensure the territorial integrity and security of the member countries of the region. China’s expansionist designs can be discerned from China’s view of the world today, a country with enormous economic power and a massive military and naval prowess – a country that is tempting other countries with the prospect of selling their goods in huge Chinese market or tempting developing countries to borrow money for infrastructure projects – apparently pretending to comply with international agreements Beijing has signed but in reality doing whatever they deem to be in the interest of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). This has been amply demonstrated by China in its behaviour in the sea-lanes of communications in South China Sea, in its relations with neighbours like Vietnam, India and the Philippines, in the fight against COVID-19 pandemic, in its oppressive crackdown in Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet, and in its international trade and economic policy.
While pursuing its strategic and commercial objectives Beijing seldom cares for international norms and interests of other countries and it unilaterally acts in its own interests. Apart from being averse to any country that criticizes it, China also regards any attempt by others, as one critic has put it, “to stand up to the bullies in Beijing as tantamount to launching a new Cold War.”China has been engaged in hostile activities against countries that are critical of its policies and these hostilities are reportedly carried out – both covertly, via infiltration, espionage and commercial theft, and more openly through its ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy. And the only response to thwart China’s nefarious expansionist designs and bullies, some experts argue, is for the victimized or target countries to stand together and aggregate their influence through alliances based on common agendas in consonance with international rules and norms.
And the formation of AUKUS is construed in this background. Australia is one of the largest exporters to China and when Australia voiced for a full inquiry into the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, China started treating the former outrageously despite the fact that in January 2020 Beijing was buying huge quantities of medical equipment from Australia for the Wuhan health emergency. Geographic location of Australia and its heavy dependence of exports to China renders it vulnerable to Chinese bullying. Nonetheless, in the aftermath of the signing of the AUKUS agreement, Australia feels emboldened to stand up to Chinese bullying by working in tandem with the UK and the US.
However, France feels betrayed in the light of the AUKUS because Australia had earlier a deal with France to supply 12 conventional submarines to Australia. Therefore, some analysts have opined that the negotiations for the AUKUS deal were inadequately handled, leaving France in the lurch and Paris understandably felt annoyed at what looked like an underhanded violation of a previously negotiated deal between Paris and Canberra. Some critics have called the AUKUS deal with good goals but bad implementation.
With AUKUS coming into being, the UK and the US are capable enough of accommodating France in one or another way to placate its misgivings, and even going to the extent of making it a part of AUKUS or any other identical formulation in the near future; however, China is unlikely to take these developments easily and the likelihood of flexing its military and naval muscles in the South China Sea, the Pacific and elsewhere is very much there. Such an eventuality entails the potential of triggering an arms race, inaugurating impetus for the Cold War and providing heyday for the military-industrial complex.
