Higher expectations and lofty aspirations are always at place prior to the convening of a global conference like the Conference Of Parties (COP), especially on the burning issues pertaining to climate change that in reality pose existential threats to the very survival of humankind. COP is held every year since 1995 under the aegis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to deliberate on the issues pertaining to the ongoing process of climate change and seek solutions to deal with them. The 26th COP that was scheduled to be held in 2020 had to be postponed to 2021 in the wake of global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. Subsequently, COP26 was held in Glasgow, in the United Kingdom, from 31 October to 12 November 2021, and it was the first in-person meeting for a multilateral environmental agreement to take place. The COP26, like its predecessor COPs in the past, was held under the aegis of the UNFCCC.
The COP26 was the first since the Paris Agreement of COP21 that called upon the Parties to make enhanced commitments towards mitigating climate change, because the Paris Agreement enjoined upon the Parties to conduct a process known as the ‘ratchet mechanism’ every five years to provide improved national pledges. COP26 was attended by about 25, 000 delegates from nearly 200 countries. Around 120 Heads of State/Government graced the occasion and these inter alia included: American President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French president Emmanuel Macron, Spanish prime minister Pedro Sanchez, India prime minister Narendra Modi, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau, and Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida etc.
COP26 at Work
On 31 October, the inaugural day of the COP26, the participants in their respective opening statements articulated their expectations for the summit. While participants from developing countries emphasized on the need for making available adequate finance, in consonance with the long-promised goal of mobilizing $100 billion per year by 2030, whereas the participants from developed countries stressed on the need to finalize the rules pertaining to the Paris Agreement Rulebook that entails the potential of providing the certainty and confidence to raise ambition.
World Leaders’ Summit, held on 1-2 November 2021 was the main highlight of COP26. On first November 2021, 60 world leaders and luminaries in their statements emphasized on the urgency and necessity of enhanced climate action. Risk, threat and vulnerability constituted the prime theme that resonated across statements. While underscoring humanity’s shared responsibility for the security of future generations, several leaders also acknowledged the ‘anger and frustration’ among youth movements, and the potential for future generations to judge the current generation even more harshly. World leaders also lost no time in embracing opportunity and possibility, especially to raise finance to support developing countries. Highlights of the World leaders’ Summit were following pledges and commitments:
- India’s commitment to achieve net zero by 2070, along with reaching 50% renewable energy by 2030;
- Spain’s announced contribution of USD 30 million to the Adaptation Fund in 2022, and commitment to increase its climate finance by 50% by 2025;
- Republic of Korea’s increase of its emissions reduction target to 40% below 2018 levels by 2030, representing an improvement from its previous NDC of 24.4% below 2017 levels; and
- The launch of the Global Methane Pledge, with over 70 countries pledging to collectively lower methane emissions by 30% by 2030 from 2020 levels.
The World Leaders’ Summit wrapped up on 2 November 2021, with a further 56 speeches from world leaders.
Negotiations at COP26 from 3 to 6 November 2021 veered around key issues like finance, transparency, adaptation,Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and loss and damage, among other difficult issues. Nevertheless, the final three days – from 10 to 12 November 2021 – witnessed weighing compromises on these issues. Negotiations on 10 November commenced with an overview from the COP26 presidency about the status of each track of negotiations. On the issue of finance, developed countries were seemingly perceived as ‘shirking their obligations to provide finance.’The three issues – finance, loss and damage and Article 6 –that were left unresolved at COP25 that was held in Madrid, Spain, in 2019, witnessed draft texts to be readied and issued on 11 November 2021.
The final day of COP26 was scheduled on 12 November and the negotiations began by hearing the status of each outstanding issue. Divergence of views in many areas could still be discerned from countries’ views, thereby indicating that final decision on these issues could require more time. 12 November was Friday and deliberations continued through Friday night and into Saturday morning. In view of COP26 presidency’s insistence to accept the package of prepared texts, there ensued a lengthy round of statements, including requests for changes, and thereafter, in the aftermath of informed-informal negotiations by the COP26 presidency with the US, China, India and others, the curtains were drawn on COP26 just before midnight on Saturday, 13 November 2021.
The resultant outcome of the COP26 was adoption of the Glasgow Climate Pact incorporating three overreaching cover discussions that provide an overall political narrative of the Summit.
Outcomes of COP26
COP26 came to an end on 12 November, after two-week long negotiations, with an agreement among approximately 200 countries to expedite the fight against climate change and to commit to stricter climate pledges. Some significant accomplishments of COP26, inter alia, include new pledges on methane gas pollution, coal financing, deforestation, completion of rules on carbon trading, and US-China deal on climate change.
But some climate scientists, legal experts, and politicians argued the final deal out of Glasgow resulted in incremental progress inadequate to address the severity of the climate crisis. Some climate activists and campaigners also sharply criticized the COP26 as an exclusionary fortnight of talks that became a public relations exercise.
New pledges on methane pollution At COP26, more than 100 countries joined a US-EU-led coalition to cut 30% of methane gas emissions by 2030 from 2020 levels, and it is construed as a significant step in tackling climate change and bringing the world closer to the goals of Paris Agreement to keep global temperature rise to below 20 C.Known as Global Methane Pledge, it encompasses countries that account for about half of global methane emissions and 70% of global GDP. According to scientists, methane is 84 times more potent than carbon and does not last as long in the atmosphere before it breaks down and this renders methane as a critical target for combating climate change quickly while concurrently minimizing other greenhouse gas emissions.
This pledge includes six of the world’s 10 biggest methane emitters – the US, Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and Mexico – and China, Russia and India that together account for 35% of global methane emissions, did not join this coalition. While announcing the launch of this pledge at COP26 on 1 November 2021, President Biden said that it was going to make a huge difference, “not just when it comes to fighting climate change – it is going to improve health, improve food supply and boost economies.”
Agreement on coal
Another highlight of the Glasgow Climate Pact is a final deal among nearly 200 nations that for the first-time targeted fossil fuels as the key driver of climate change. nevertheless, according to media reports, the deal contained a last-minute change that some officials called a softening of critical language regarding coal power. Undoubtedly, reports in some sections of media indicate that China and India, some of the world’s biggest burners of coal, insisted on a last-minute change of fossil-fuel language in the pact, switching the words from a “phase-out” to a “phase down” of coal; nonetheless, India has denied this charge. Some countries initially opposed the move but ultimately conceded.
While disappointed by the change of language on coalpower, some experts opined that the deal was still better than nothing and it provides incremental progress on transitioning from fossil fuels to clean energy. In a tweet about the deal, Jennifer Morgan, Executive Director of Greenpeace International, wrote: “It’s meek, it’s weak and the 1.5C goal is only just alive, but a signal has been sent that the era of coal is ending. And that matters.”
U.S.-China pledge to slow climate change
Another salutary outcome of COP26 is the agreement between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest emitters of carbon, to cooperate during the current decade to curtail global warming from surpassing 1.5 degrees Celsius and ensure that progress result from the conference. This agreement between the rivals, as well as two largest emitters, had taken many delegates by surprise delegates during the course of summit. Admittedly, this announcement of agreement at the current juncture falls short of specific details or deadlines; nevertheless, it emphasizes that Chinese and American leaders will work to boost clean energy, mitigate deforestation and curtail methane emissions. It also reiterated their commitment to work together to help accelerate the transition to a net-zero global economy. The U.S.-China agreement lacks specific details or deadlines but emphasizes that Chinese and American leaders will work to boost clean energy, mitigate deforestation and slash methane emissions. The joint declaration said the countries will work together to help accelerate the transition to a net-zero global economy. While announcing the US-China agreement at COP26 Summit, John F. Kerry, the US special climate envoy said on 10 November: “The United States and China have no shortage of differences. But on climate, cooperation is the only way to get this job done.”
Toward 2030 targets to reach 1.5°C goal
It is worth noting that the draft of the final COP26 deal did not envisage a rolling annual review of climate pledges for which the developing countries had called for. Nevertheless, countries are currently called upon revise their pledges every five years. Concurrently, the Glasgow Climate Pact also left unresolved answers on how much and how quickly countries must cut their emissions. According to the IPCC, to keep global temperatures from exceeding the 1.50C level will require the world to nearly half greenhouse gas emissions within the next decade to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. In this context, COP26 has been billed by some experts as humankind’s ‘last and best’ chance to support the goal to not exceed 1.50 C of global warming, the temperature target as envisaged in the Paris Agreement. Nevertheless, participating countries agreed to submit tougher 2030 targets in 2022 and to put forward long-term strategies to help transition to net-zero emissions by around 2050 in order to avert the adverse consequences of the vagaries of climate change.
While deliberating on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, an article that describes rules for an international carbon market and other forms of international cooperation, was perhaps the last peace of the Paris Agreement Rulebook had remained to be finalized. Undoubtedly, participating countries have agreed in principle to avoid double counting of emission reduction across more than one country’s greenhouse gas inventory; however, exactly the question as to how much double counting will actually take place still remains unclear.
Deforestation
Another pleasant outcome of COP26 was agreement among more than one hundred countries, possessing nearly 85% of the world’s forests, including countries like Canada, Russia, the Democratic republic of Congo and the United States, to end deforestation by 2030. It was also agreed to improve upon the 2014 New York Declaration on Forests. And the signatories under this agreement had pledged to half deforestation by 2020 and end it by 2030; however, in the 2014-2020 period, deforestation registered an increase.
Challenges Ahead
There have been mixed reactions to COP26. While describing COP26 climate summit in Glasgow as not a momentous moment, an expert referring to the fate of the planet on the line, has opined world leaders should have been swinging for the fences; instead, they played small ball, working out only incremental gains than the historic breakthrough the occasion demanded. According to James Salzman, a professor of environmental law at UCLA Law School, COP26 reflected an important shift in global climate strategy toward a sectoral approach because it featured separate agreements on issues like methane, coal and deforestation, rather than focusing solely on greenhouse gas mitigation. He further added: “Talk is cheap, of course, and it remains to be seen whether these amount to anything more than aspirational rhetoric. But the pivot could be significant in breaking down a huge problem into more bite-sized approaches.”
Interestingly, COP26 was held in Glasgow, home to James Watt, the inventor of steam engine. It is in this context that one critic has opined that it is a fitting station from which the “Glasgow Train of Ambition” departs and the question now is as to how this train is going to speed up: “One thing is clear that the Glasgow train needs to provide seats for all passengers.”
*President, India Water Foundation
