India Water Foundation’s Report On UNFCCC COP 28

30^th November-12^th December 2023, Dubai

Ms. Shweta Tyagi*

“The UN warns of an alarming path toward catastrophic global heating, the world witnesses the breaking of the largest iceberg in Antarctica, wildfires rage in Australia and Bolivia, deadly floods wreak havoc in Somalia, India and 2023 looms as a potential record-breaking year for heat.”

The COP is the supreme decision-making body of the Convention. All States that are Parties to the Convention are represented at the COP, at which they review the implementation of the Convention and any other legal instruments that the COP adopts and take decisions necessary to     promote the effective implementation of the Convention, including institutional an administrative arrangements.

The COP 28 Summit in Dubai marks a pivotal moment, with nations coming together to solidify their commitments in combating climate change. Since the landmark Paris Agreement, concrete and collaborative actions initiated by countries have been successful in addressing climate challenges such as global warming. Further in this direction, COP 28 has emerged as a crucial milestone, successful milestone, successfully uniting the world to address pressing environmental concerns. Beyond witnessing nations agreeing on ways to limit the global temperature rise within the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold, helping vulnerable communities adapt to the effects of climate change, and achieving net-zero emissions, the Summit featured the Global Stocktake for the first time, examining the progress made in curbing global warming and underscoring the seriousness of countries in building a sustainable and resilient future through collaborative endeavors on the global stage.

As COP28 draws near, the world braces for pivotal decisions that could profoundly shape the course of global climate action. On one hand, the planet hurtles toward an impending climate catastrophe. On the other, governmental efforts to avert this crisis appear insufficient. Amidst these dire realities, a beacon of hope emerges in the form of a highly anticipated event—an acronym laden with the promise of change: COP28. This gathering holds the potential to steer us toward a more sustainable and resilient future.

India Water Foundation at COP28

Side Event

India Water Foundation co-organized a side event in partnership with Open Dialogues International Foundation, RE Scoop, Saving Our Planet, International Climate Development Initiative and Femmes Bladi. Speakers in the event were Dr. Arvind kumar, President, India Water Foundation, Ms. Chiara Martinelli from CANEurope, Mr. Stephan Savarese from Saving Our Planet and Ms. ChiaChun Angela Liang. The Discussion focused on if and how multi-stakeholder dialogues and other participatory engagement methods can be an effective tool for climate action in its different dimensions, including specific UNFCCC agenda themes (such as energy, just transition, gender, adaptation and resilience, science, It was an Interactive dialogue with the audience, combined with the discussion. 

Multi-Stakeholder Policy Dialogue

India Water Foundation organized a Multi-Stakeholder Policy Dialogue on ‘Water Transversality & Climate Risk: Adaptation, Mitigation & Resilience Building’ in collaboration with Global Alliance for a Sustainable Planet at the GASP Pavilion in in the Blue Zone on 5th December 2023. The speakers in the event were Dr. Arvind Kumar, President, India Water Foundation, Dr. David Cooper Acting Executive Secretary, Convention of Biological Diversity,  Dr. Satya Tripathi, Secretary General of GASP and former UN Assistant Secretary General,  Mr. Eric Tardieu, Vice President, World Water Council, Dr. Eddy Moors, Rector, IHE Delft Institute of Water Education, Mr. Thomas Rebermark, Director- Swedish Water House- International Processes, Stockholm International Institute of Water, Mr. Anthony Mhagama, Manager of the SUSTAIN II Programme, IUCN, Mr. Hitesh Vaidya, Chief Technical Advisor, IWF. The event was moderated by Ms. Shweta Tyagi, Chief Functionary of India Water Foundation. The event highlighted the benefits and co-benefits of linkage of water and related sectors. Need for targeted climate finance and raising awareness for the role of water for climate mitigation and adaptation as well as resilience building.

Young Ambassador of Climate Change

Our little Jalmitra, an ambassador for environment and Climate Dhananjay Kumar a student of amity International School, Pushp Vihar, Delhi attended COP28 as Green zone registered participant and explored breakthrough climate innovations, cutting-edge technology, interactive exhibits, inspiring art installations and film screenings. He also treated his taste buds to some sumptuous meals. The COP brought together young climate champions from over 180 countries to a platform to share their solutions on the global stage, and to deliver a clear message to leaders all over the world- We need to act now to address climate change. He addressed world leaders and made an appeal to other young delegates to reduce emissions to control global warming and to conserve our precious natural resources and use them responsibly for a sustainable planet. After all they are the future residents of Earth and shall hold all of us responsible for degrading the #environment and heating it.

India at COP28

The COP28 was attended by a record number of delegates from the government of India with around 725 party delegates and 223 party overflow headed by Sh. Bhupendra Yadav, Union Minister of Environment, Forest and climate change. The India Pavilion hosted various events organized by several central ministries and state governments. The CoP 28 inauguration was attended by PM Modi and in his speech he made several points on how India has 17 percent of the world’s population, is the most populous country but its share in global carbon emissions is less than 4 percent- although Climate agencies say that figure is about 7% . It’s one of the few economies in the world that is on track to meet the NDC targets and has pledged to reduce emissions intensity by 45 percent by 2030, increase the share of non-fossil fuel to 50 percent of the mix. It is sticking to a net zero target of 2070, not bringing that earlier. India and UAE launched a Green Credit Initiative. He also made a big announcement- that India would like to host the CoP33 to be held in 2028 that India last hosted in 2002. India has refused to sign the COP28 Declaration on Climate and Health citing the lack of practicality in curbing greenhouse gases use for cooling in the health sector, as the reason. India expressed concerns that greenhouse gas reduction for cooling in the health sector could hinder its ability to meet the growing demands for medical services, particularly in remote and underserved areas. India also refrained from signing the pledge to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity by 2030 even though New Delhi already committed to it as part of its G20 presidency. During the UN’s climate talks here, 118 countries committed to tripling the global renewable energy capacity by 2030 in a highly endorsed initiative.

Key themes Discussed

Beyond discussion of current progress and the future of fossil fuels, the GST decision includes important language on themes that emerged as critical throughout the conference:

• Science: The multiple references in the decision to findings in the IPCC’s sixth assessment report are significant. The decision notes with ‘alarm and serious concern’ the IPCC’s finding that human activities have ‘unequivocally’ caused global warming of about 1.1 °C and that climate impacts are already being felt in every region across the globe and disproportionally affecting those who have contributed least to these impacts. The decision also notes the IPCC’s finding that feasible and effective mitigation options are already available in all sectors to keep 1.5 °C within reach with the necessary cooperation on technologies and support.
• Equity: The importance of equity between Parties, as well as the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capacities, was reiterated frequently throughout discussions on the GST, culminating in multiple references to these concepts throughout the final decision text.
• Nature: A key theme throughout the conference were the critical links between achieving emission reductions and protecting biodiversity. This is reflected in the decision text, which contains language emphasizing the importance of conserving, protecting and restoring nature and ecosystems towards achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goal, and noting the importance of ensuring the integrity of all ecosystems and protection of biodiversity. A reference to enhanced efforts towards halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation by 2030 was also included in the final text.
• Technology and AI: The GST decision underlines the fundamental role of technology development and transfer, endogenous technologies and innovation in facilitating urgent adaptation and mitigation action. Interestingly, it highlighted the role of the Technology Mechanism Initiative on Artificial Intelligence for Climate Action, which explores the role of AI in providing climate adaptation and mitigation solutions. In this regard, it is worth noting that outside negotiations, COP28 saw the launch of the AI Innovation Grand Challenge to develop AI solutions for climate action in developing countries, with a focus on least developed countries and Small Island Developing States. The GST decision also records Parties’ agreement to establish a ‘technology implementation programme’ to strengthen support for the implementation of technology priorities identified by developing countries.
• International cooperation: Broadly, the final decision notes the importance of continued cooperation between Parties as well as placing Parties’ actions within the context of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.

Beyond the negotiating rooms: critical themes

Outside of the formal negotiations, COP28 saw significant developments in a range of areas, from energy transition, cutting methane reductions and developing critical minerals, to protecting nature and health. We note some highlights below.

Energy transition- Discussions on the energy transition was a core focus at COP28. Outside of the GST decision, several announcements were made signalling an understanding of the important role of the energy transition in meeting the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement, including:COP28 President, Sultan Al Jaber, launched the Global Decarbonisation Accelerator which is based on three pillars: “rapidly scaling the energy system of tomorrow, decarbonising the energy system of today; and targeting methane and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases”.Over 60 countries signed the Global Cooling Pledge, a joint initiative between the UAE and the UN Environment Programme-led Cool Coalition. The Pledge aims to reduce emissions from cooling equipment by 68% by 2050 as well as increase access to sustainable cooling by 2030. The Global Cooling Pledge was launched just after the Cool Coalition published its Global Cooling Watch Report which predicted that emissions from the cooling sector will more than double by 2050 and sets out sustainable cooling measures in three areas: “passive cooling, higher-energy efficiency standards, and a faster phase down of climate-warming refrigerants”.

Methane and oil and gas industry decarbonisation- Importantly, the final GST decision calls on Parties to contribute to efforts to accelerate and substantially reduce non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030. This reflects the dominance of discussions around combatting methane throughout the conference.The COP28 Global Methane Pledge Ministerial saw Ministers welcome a number of national actions and grant funding initiatives aimed at delivering on the Global Methane Pledge goal of cutting methane emissions by at least 30% by 2030 relative to 2020 levels. Kazakhstan, Kenya, Turkmenistan, Romania, and Angola joined the Global Methane Pledge, bringing total participation in the pledge to 155 governments.Additionally, the COP28 Presidency and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia launched the ‘Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter’, which calls on the oil and gas sector to increase their climate action. So far, the Charter has garnered the support of at least 50 oil and gas corporations from across the globe. Signatories to the Charter commit to net-zero operations by 2050 at the latest, ending routine flaring by 2030, and achieving ‘near-zero’ upstream methane emissions. Among other things, signatories also agree to:

• Invest in renewables, low-carbon fuels and negative emissions technologies;
• Increase transparency with respect to reporting on their greenhouse gas emissions and progress in reducing emissions;
• Increase their alignment with broader industry best practices to accelerate decarbonisation of operations, aspiring to implement current best practices by 2030 to collectively reduce emission intensity; and
• Provide secure and affordable energy to support the development of all economies.

Hydrogen- The final GST decision calls on Parties to contribute to global efforts on accelerating zero- and low-emission technologies, including low-carbon hydrogen production. Outside of formal decisions, the conference saw the launch of multiple initiatives to support scaling up of hydrogen production:

• The Intergovernmental Declaration of Intent on Mutual Recognition of Certification Schemes for Hydrogen and Hydrogen Derivatives. The participants to the declaration aim to accelerate the development of technological solutions to enable mutual certification scheme recognition through cooperation with the International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in the Economy (IPHE) and the Hydrogen Technology Cooperation Programme (Hydrogen TCP). Participants will nominate government experts to work with IPHE and Hydrogen TCP to develop solutions for mutual recognition in the context of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen as well as hydrogen derivatives. The development of such solutions may set benchmarks for standards of hydrogen certification, particularly around how “green” the hydrogen must be.
• Publication of an ISO methodology (Technical Specification, TS 19870), which provides a global benchmark for assessing greenhouse gas emissions of hydrogen pathways on a life-cycle basis, namely from well to consumption gate, including every delivery gate. However, the ISO methodology has been criticised for lacking any threshold to determine whether the hydrogen is actually clean and green, including considering emissions generated in producing the hydrogen (e.g. from the electricity grid) as well as leakage in the generation of blue hydrogen (being hydrogen produced from gas).
• A Public-Private Action Statement on “cross-border trade corridors in hydrogen and derivatives” in partnership with the International Hydrogen Trade Forum and the Hydrogen Council, which provides for public-private partnerships to accelerate clean energy deployment.
• A Joint Agreement on the responsible deployment of renewables-based hydrogen, which seeks to align hydrogen deployment with an equitable, nature-positive and net zero future. The agreement noted six broad themes that should inform responsible deployment.

Critical Minerals- There was also recognition at COP28 around the central role of critical minerals in achieving the Paris Agreement climate goals through enabling the development of clean energy projects and technologies. UN Secretary-General António Guterres announced a panel would be set up that aims to ensure the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy is just, sustainable and equitable. Referred to as the “Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals”, it will bring together governments, international organisations, industry and civil society to develop common and voluntary principles for guiding extractive industries, in order to achieve a just and sustainable transition.The focus on critical minerals is particularly important given the consensus at COP28 on tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030, which will significantly increase demand for critical minerals. This will put strain on countries with extractive industries to ensure that those industries operate in ways that are aligned with the Paris Agreement and other international initiatives, such as the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and the Sustainable Development Goals, as well as placing cost pressures on importing countries, particularly developing countries.

Increase sustainable productivity and production of agriculture as well as to integrate agriculture and food systems into National Adaptation Plans, NDCs, and other related strategies before COP30 convenes in 2025.

Food, Agriculture and Water- Transformation of agriculture and food systems emerged as a key discussion point throughout the conference.Perhaps most significantly, over 150 countries, endorsed the Declaration on Agriculture, Food Systems and Climate Action. Signatories to this Declaration agree to strengthen their shared and respective efforts to accelerate and scale science and evidence-based innovations – including local and indigenous knowledge – which increase sustainable productivity and production of agriculture as well as to integrate agriculture and food systems into National Adaptation Plans, NDCs, and other related strategies before COP30 convenes in 2025.Food, Agriculture and Water Day at COP28 saw several other major announcements, demonstrating the increasing recognition of the impacts of climate change on our food systems as well as the impact of industrial agriculture on the environment. Some of the key announcements included:

• The UN High Level Champion for COP28, H.E Razan Al Mubarak, announced that over 200 non-State actors, including farmers, cities, businesses, and financial institutions, have signed the Call to Action for Transforming Food Systems for People, Nature, and Climate whereby signatories have committed to take ten priority actions to deliver the shared vision that by 2030, ‘food systems deliver significant, measurable progress for people, nature and climate’.
• The COP28 Presidency, together with the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), the World Bank, CGIAR and the International Fund for Agricultural Development announced the Agrifood Sharm-El Sheikh Support Program. This is a three-year program which aims to enable countries and regions unlock finance and support for farmers, food producers, small agribusinesses and local communities.
• The COP28 Food-Agri-Climate National Action Toolkit was launched to provide a resource for national policy makers and decision-makers to accelerate efforts on climate action and agriculture system transformation.

Health- COP28 was the first COP to have a thematic day focused on health, recognising the negative impacts of climate change on health. The prominence given to health at this year’s conference has been welcomed by many, including the World Health Organisation.In a landmark development 123 countries, signed the UAE Climate and Health Declaration, which includes commitments to pursue eight common objectives such as “promoting steps to curb emissions and reduce waste in the health sector, such as by assessing the greenhouse gas emissions of health systems, and developing action plans, nationally determined decarbonisation targets, and procurement standards for national health systems, including supply chains.”In parallel, the Guiding Principles for Financing Climate and Health Solutions (Guiding Principles) were published. The key pillars of the Guiding Principles include improving the efficiency and equity of financing for health and for climate as well as accelerating climate and health solution to save and improve lives both for present and future generations.

Climate Finance- At COP28, Parties continued discussions on setting a new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG) which will build on the goal of developed country Parties to mobilise USD 100 billion per year by 2020. While a number of Parties claim that the USD 100 billion per year target has not yet been met, an agreement was reached to advance the development of a draft negotiating text for consideration by the Parties at COP29, including at least three technical expert dialogues in 2024 to allow for in-depth technical discussions on the elements of the NCQG.Outside of the negotiating rooms, a number of efforts were made to progress climate finance. Some of the key announcements included:Thirteen national governments endorsed the UAE Leaders’ Declaration on a Global Climate Finance Framework which includes 10 articles over the four themes of making finance available, accessible and affordable, collective action, opportunity for all and delivering at scale.The UAE, with launch partners BlackRock, Brookfield, and TPG, announced the launch of ALTÉRRA, an investment platform which aims to facilitate private capital towards climate investments, focusing on emerging markets and developing economies..

Nature- The importance of nature, and recognition that countries need to coordinate and simultaneously implement strategies that address both climate change and biodiversity loss, was a central theme at the conference.The UAE COP28 Presidency and the Presidency to the 15th Conference of the Parties under the Convention on Biological Diversity released a joint statement recognising that there is no pathway to fully achieve the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement without “urgently addressing climate change, biodiversity loss and land degradation together in a coherent, synergistic and holistic manner”.

The global biodiversity target to protect at least 30 percent of the planet’s land and ocean by 2030, is also a critical way to help achieve the world’s climate goals. Nature finance was also a particular focus at COP28, with over $186 million of new financing for nature-based solutions announced.

Nature, Land use and Oceans Day in the second week of the conference saw a focus on scaling solutions to protect, restore and effectively manage natural ecosystems, with key events and announcements including: A high-level ministerial event, ‘From Agreement to Action: Harnessing 30×30 to Tackle Climate Change’, was held which showcased that the global biodiversity target to protect at least 30 percent of the planet’s land and ocean by 2030, is also a critical way to help achieve the world’s climate goals. Nature finance was also a particular focus at COP28, with over $186 million of new financing for nature-based solutions announced.

UNEP released its ‘State of Finance for Nature 2023’ report which found that nearly $7 trillion of public and private finance is invested in activities that directly harm nature (some 30 times the amount spent on nature-based solutions annually). Meanwhile, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and other multi-lateral development banks (MDBs) published the Common Principles to Track Nature-Related Finance, a set of principles to track nature-positive finance, aimed at making it easier for MDBs to implement screening and tracking systems that quantify the volume of finance going to nature-positive activities from direct and indirect activities

Multi-level action, urbanisation, built environment and transport- The GST text calls on Parties to contribute to accelerating the reduction of emissions from road transport including through development of infrastructure and rapid deployment of zero and low-emission vehicles.Multiple initiatives and announcements were made at COP28 to facilitate low-carbon transportation, as well as built environments and infrastructure. These included:The UAE Ministry of Climate Change and Environment, Abu Dhabi Waste Management Company, Tadweer, and Roland Berger, launched the Waste to Zero Initiative, which will host worldwide workshops and discussions which will focus on resource and waste management, the circular economy and emission reduction technologies. Led by France and Morocco, the Buildings Breakthrough was launched, which has the target to make near-zero emissions and climate resilient buildings ‘the new normal by 2030’.The UAE and Canada also launched the Cement and Concrete Breakthrough which will support new innovative technologies such as carbon capture utilisation and storage to help accelerate the decarbonisation of the cement and concrete industry.

Inclusivity, youth and gender equality- Inclusivity was one of the four cross-cutting themes at COP28 with a thematic day focusing on youth, children, education and skills as well as gender equality, the just transition and the role of indigenous peoples in climate action also featuring in the COP28 thematic program.Some of the key announcements in this regard included:

• COP28 and YOUNGO (the Children and Youth Constituency of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) launched the first ever Youth Stocktake, an analysis of the involvement and inclusion of youth in the UNFCCC and climate diplomacy as well as offering strategies for enhancing youth participation.
• The COP28 Presidency launched a new COP28 Gender-Responsive Just Transition and Climate Action Partnership which was endorsed by 68 countries. Signatories to this Partnership have committed to strengthen efforts to fully incorporate the human rights of women and girls in just transition efforts as well as to encourage gender-responsive strategies on mitigation and adaptation, among others.
• The International Union for Conservation of Nature, International Indigenous Forum on Biodiversity (IIFB), and IUCN Indigenous Peoples Organisations (IPO) members launched the Podong Indigenous Peoples Initiative which will increase funding and capacity-building for indigenous peoples and organisations.
• In collaboration with the SME Climate Hub, the COP28 Presidency launched the COP28 & SME Climate Hub for MENA which will provide free resources to assist small and medium enterprises (SMEs) across the Middle East and North Africa make a climate commitment, as well as to measure, report and reduce emissions.

Major Achievements

Global Stock Take: This will be the first CoP Global Stock Taking exercise (GST) to see how the world’s actions in the past few years measure up against the Paris CoP 21 agreement in 2016. The Global Stocktake (GST) – the first comprehensive assessment of progress since the 2015 Paris Agreement – has been the headline agenda item in the lead-up to COP28. A ‘technical dialogue’ working group has led the process of collecting and summarising data on current progress over the last year, and submitted an output report that Parties discussed in Dubai. Producing a final decision text that establishes the urgency and action needed from Parties to meet those goals under Paris was a key deliverable for the COP28 Presidency.

The GST sets out the directives for governments establishing their next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – plans for emissions mitigation and climate adaptation to ensure we do not surpass 2°C of global warming, and aiming for below 1.5°C. A debate on fossil fuels was part of the GST process, with the potential to include some language around their ‘phasing out’ or ‘phasing down’ in the decision text. The final text includes a number of historic steps but represents incremental rather than transformative progress that many Parties – especially the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) negotiating bloc – and climate activists were pushing for. In the final text Parties are encouraged to submit revised NDCs with ‘ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gases, sectors and categories and aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, as informed by the latest science, in the light of different national circumstances’ (Paragraph 39).

The outcome of the fossil fuel debate in the language of the text is mixed: there is recognition of the need to ‘transition away from fossil fuels’ but this is limited to energy systems and includes an additional paragraph on ‘transitional fuels’. The text also includes commitments to triple renewable energy, double energy efficiency, and reduce methane emissions (although without a clear target) by 2030. Language on coal phase-out was diluted from ‘rapidly phasing down’ unabated coal with limits, to a more general ‘efforts towards phase-down’. The text also includes discussion on the need for adaptation support, protection of nature and biodiversity, and relevant sectoral transformations needed, including in food systems. Ultimately, although this decision includes important recognition of sectoral shifts needed, including on fossil fuels, it will be insufficient to stay below 1.5C of warming this century. While the GST includes valuable high-level decisions, the text includes many loopholes, and it remains to be seen how governments will incorporate these guidelines into their revised NDC submissions.

Climate Finance- Including a Loss and Damage Fund- On the first day of COP28, Parties agreed to the creation of a new fund for Loss and Damage. This was celebrated as a major win for the COP Presidency and an auspicious start to the conference. A number of governments announced new contributions at the outset, while others made commitments to the Fund later in the week, with pledges totalling $770 million. The new Loss and Damage Fund is a significant accomplishment considering the issue failed entirely during negotiations at COP26 in Glasgow just two years ago. While the decision was widely praised – with credit to AOSIS and the Least Developed Countries group (LDCs) for pushing this forward over decades – it has involved a number of significant concessions. There are ongoing points of contention with the final agreement, which featured a compromise proposal for the Fund to be administered by the World Bank for an interim four-year period. These include:

The new Loss and Damage Fund is a significant accomplishment considering the issue failed entirely during negotiations at COP26 in Glasgow just two years ago. While the decision was widely praised – with credit to AOSIS and the Least Developed Countries group (LDCs) for pushing this forward over decades

• The World Bank is mainly loan-based, donor driven and rarely provides the types of non-revenue generating grants that are needed to support loss and damage impacts.
• Parties are encouraged, but not obligated, to contribute, and underlying questions of liability and compensation were entirely removed.
• Who is considered a donor and who should be a recipient – and where do oil-producing States fall?
• How Non-Economic Losses and Damages (NELD) will be considered for funding?
• Where will the Fund sit long-term?

Developing country Parties have continuously emphasised that while the agreement on the Fund is an important step, ambitious action on emissions mitigation – including a phase-out of fossil fuels – should be the top priority to reduce the need for Loss and Damage support. To that end, other Parties announced further climate finance support during Global Climate Finance Day, including pledges for the Least Developed Countries Fund and the Special Climate Change Fund (for SIDS) – both part of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) – for $174.2 million. The Adaptation Fund also received $160 million in new pledges, and the Green Climate Fund (GCF) received new contributions in the second replenishment cycle now totalling $12.8 billion.

Further ongoing finance discussions included the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG). Parties began preparations to establish a new global finance target beyond 2025. This will be an important policy area for mobilising climate finance in the coming year, especially considering that the previous commitment from developed countries for $100 billion annually in climate finance is currently far below what was promised, with actual contributions at around $10 billion annually.

The Global Goal on Adaptation– Negotiations on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) focused on the application of a proposed new framework for monitoring and measuring progress on efforts around the world to adapt to the impacts of a changing climate, which has been under discussion through the Glasgow-Sharm El Sheikh Work Programme (GLaSS). Agreement on this framework for measurement was critical considering how difficult it is to standardise indicators and measure success around adaptation compared to the more straightforward targets of emissions reduction for mitigation.The final decision established a framework for achieving the GGA to ‘enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change in the context of the temperature goal of the Agreement’ established under the Paris Agreement. This framework includes measures to monitor and report on adaptation, as well as sectoral targets for 2030, including those related to health, water, and food supply. The text also recognises the importance of undertaking transformational adaptation that is informed by climate science and in line with the worldviews and values of Indigenous Peoples.

Despite the adoption of the framework, the final GGA text included only weak language on future finance commitments or how to monitor them. This will make it much more difficult for countries to ensure they can access the support needed to actually undertake transformational adaptation measures. While new financing was announced on adaptation for a few different Funds, this still falls far below what is needed to address the global adaptation finance gap in developing countries, which UNEP estimates in its 2023 Adaptation Gap Report ranges from $215 billion to $387 billion. Additionally, the ongoing need for more adaptation funding and potential for diplomatic pressure in this area was to some extent overshadowed by the early commitments to the new Loss and Damage Fund. Further discussions will continue on this finance component at COP29.

Voluntary carbon markets (Article 6)- In a disappointing outcome, Parties failed to adopt texts to progress markets under Articles 6.2 and 6.4 of the Paris Agreement. While the lack of progress on Article 6.2 will not prevent Parties from engaging in bilateral cooperation under Article 6.2 – and indeed a number of Article 6.2 agreements were signed on the sidelines of the conference – it does leave a degree of uncertainty on transparency, reporting and authorisation processes. Meanwhile, the absence of agreement on methodologies for Article 6.4 means that it will be at least another year before the crediting mechanism can operationalise. Outside of negotiations, COP28 saw political and business leaders support carbon markets as a key source of climate finance, and voluntary standards announced collaboration to bolster integrity and accountability in the voluntary market: hopefully, these efforts will help to steady what has been a volatile year for the voluntary carbon market. Negotiations continued around establishing a transparent framework for voluntary carbon markets under Articles 6 and 13 of the Paris Agreement, including one that avoids common problems with carbon offsetting, like double counting. While Article 6 debates also continued late into the evening of 12 December, many issues remained unresolved by the end of COP. Discussions on a supervisory body for carbon markets and on accounting for carbon credits were ultimately postponed for next year’s agenda, leaving an ongoing vacuum in transparency and reporting in carbon markets.

The absence of agreement on methodologies for Article 6.4 means that it will be at least another year before the crediting mechanism can operationalise. Outside of negotiations, COP28 saw political and business leaders support carbon markets as a key source of climate finance, and voluntary standards announced collaboration to bolster integrity and accountability in the voluntary market

Green Pledge: CoP 28 also has cleared a Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, which aims to triple renewable-energy generation capacity by 2030 and calls for an end to new investments in coal- significantly India didn’t sign on this. 

Health Pledge: On the first Health Day at COP28, global leaders united in endorsing the health and climate change declaration, sounding the alarm on the severe health implications of climate change. India did not sign on to this either 

Fossil Fuel: The role of fossil fuels is being hotly debated in the CoP- particularly as big consumers and big economies China and India are against any curtailment of its planned development- at present the final draft is stuck on using the term Phase-out vs Phase-down of fuel, as India had insisted in Glasgow CoP. India has also made it clear that cuts must be on all fossil fuel, not just Coal which it needs for thermal power- about 73% of Indian power generation is based on coal- and has indicated that Oil and Gas cuts must also be included.

The transition from the fossil fuel era hasn’t been completed, this agreement signifies the commencement of that process. Stiell stressed the urgency for governments and businesses to translate these commitments into tangible real-world results promptly

Beginning of the End-COP28 concluded with an agreement marking the initiation of the end of the fossil fuel era. The agreement focuses on a prompt, fair, and just transition, emphasizing significant reductions in emissions and increased financial support. Nearly 200 participating Parties united in Dubai, showcasing global solidarity, and decided on the world’s inaugural ‘global stocktake’ to enhance climate action by the decade’s end. The primary objective remains maintaining the global temperature rise below 1.5°C. Simon Stiell, the UN Climate Change Executive Secretary, highlighted in the closing speech that while the transition from the fossil fuel era hasn’t been completed, this agreement signifies the commencement of that process. Stiell stressed the urgency for governments and businesses to translate these commitments into tangible real-world results promptly.

Emissions intensive industries and a just transition– Regardless of nuances in the GST decision text, the transition away from fossil fuels is critical. For businesses in emissions intensive sectors, building the concept of just transition into their decarbonisation strategies is important, and the decision on the just transition work program indicates the breadth of the considerations that firms should take into account when considering how they will support the transition not only of workers but also of communities in fossil-fuel dependent regions. Providing adequate and innovative financing and incentives to support the transition will pose challenges for Government. Meanwhile, we expect the newly established Net Zero Authority will have plenty of work to do in supporting just transition. For industries with material methane emissions, this conference saw a ramp up in global efforts to combat methane emissions.

Carbon and biodiversity project developers– While Article 6 negotiations stagnated at COP28, we saw much work to bolster integrity of international voluntary carbon markets and support demand for high integrity units. It remains to be seen whether a more successful outcome on Article 6 can be achieved by next year’s conference, to provide much needed certainty for the future of these markets – particularly of Article 6.4. The recognition at the conference that there is no pathway to fully achieve the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement without addressing climate change, biodiversity loss and land degradation together in a coherent, synergistic and holistic manner can be expected to see momentum for biodiversity protection initiatives grow, and we expect to see the Federal Government to continue to progress its Nature Positive agenda as we head into 2024.

Corporates– Importantly, COP28 saw the official end of the work of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). The ISSB’s new standards on climate disclosure reflect the culmination of the work of the TCFD, and are set to be the global best practice benchmark going forward, and are set to soon form the basis of a mandatory climate reporting regime. Meanwhile, the release of the Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative’s supporting materials for its claims code of practice just ahead of COP provides a useful framework for corporates to consider their approaches to decarbonisation strategies and carbon credit procurement.

Conclusion:

The outcomes of COP28, in combination with the plethora of declarations and initiatives across an array of sectors that we have seen over the past weeks, will give rise to a number of challenges and opportunities for Indian businesses as we look ahead to 2024. While it will take time to digest the details of the decisions and declaration, we see key takeaways for business. COP 28 showcased a significant turning point in global climate finance, marked by landmark funds and substantial commitments from influential nations. The conference emphasized the indispensable role of accountability, reflected through transparent reporting mechanisms and commitments for future evaluation and acknowledgment of challenges. A pivotal shift was highlighted from discussing ‘what’ needs to be done to defining the ‘how,’ urging practical steps and immediate actions for accelerated global climate efforts. With the conclusion of the inaugural Global Stocktake, COP28 sets the stage for a new cycle within the Paris Agreement, propelled by actionable solutions aimed at halving emissions, bridging adaptation gaps, and fortifying resilience by 2030.

The event echoes a resounding call for transformational change, emphasizing initiatives, commitments, and shared responsibility, paving the way toward a sustainable, resilient future nurtured by global action. Ultimately, this year’s COP included a number of high-level outcomes that could help drive more ambitious national policy in the transition away from fossil fuels, in climate finance contributions, and in support for adaptation. However, these measures came at a cost, with much of the actual language on follow-through in these areas watered down by many ‘developed’ and oil producing Parties.

Even where the UAE Presidency team initially pushed for stronger commitments – including in the language on fossil fuel phase-outs – the final decision text does not meet the goal of staying below 1.5°C. The process by the end of COP left many of the most vulnerable countries behind, especially when the COP President passed the decision text without allowing for comment, while the AOSIS bloc was not yet physically present in the room. While this COP has produced some significant steps forward, the lack of specific commitments and pervasive loopholes mean it will be up to the Parties themselves to decide the extent to which these high-level agreements are embedded in national policy and in revised NDC submissions.