Shinzo Abe, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, was sworn in as new Prime Minister of Japan on 26 December 2012. He has earlier served as Prime Minister for less than a year (26 September 2006–12 September 2007). He is poised to leade Japan in the aftermath of the LDP and its coalition partner New Komeito appeared to secure a two-thirds majority in the lower house, ousting the ruling Democratic Party (DPJ).
Having won his first seat in parliament in 1993, he went on to become deputy cabinet secretary. In September 2003 he became secretary-general of the then-ruling LDP. Appointed to the cabinet for the first time in October 2005, he was given the high-profile role of chief cabinet secretary. When he became prime minister in September 2006, he was widely seen as an outspoken with a popular appeal to voters.
Early months of his premiership witnessed him scoring a number of political hits, achieving a high-level rapprochement with China and winning local support with a tough line on North Korea. A conservative, Mr Abe pushed for a more assertive foreign policy and a greater role for Japan on the world stage.
Shinzō Abe at APEC 2006, with then U.S. President George W. Bush and President Roh Moo-hyun of South Korea.
Challenges before Abe
Abe has many challenging tasks before him. He has the opportunity to shape the future of a country with the world’s third largest economy after the United States and China. He favours more ambitious fiscal and monetary stimulus to jolt Japan out of decades of anemic growth.
The political instability both reflects and contributes to the intractability of Japan’s challenges. With 127 million people and an average per capita income of $ 35,000, Japan remains a wealthy and smoothly functioning nation. But its population is aging and shrinking, sapping confidence and innovation. The political system has been unable to embrace measures that might reinvigorate society, from increased immigration to better conditions for working mothers.
China is closely monitoring developments in Japan and the Chinese leaders reportedly fan the flames of anti-Japanese sentiment to solidify their domestic standing. China’s new leader, Xi Jinping, is reported to have been talking tough with regard to disputed islands and in the second week of December 2012 Beijing sent observation planes to fly over the islands in what Japan decried as an invasion of its sovereignty.
According to one opinio, the islands dispute is but one facet of China’s growing assertiveness, as it lays claim to almost the entire South China Sea and tangles with Vietnam, the Philippines and others. However, the argument over the islands — known in Japan as the Senkakus and in China as the Diaoyus — is particularly dangerous. Both Japan and China have much more to gain from cooperation than confrontation.
During his first term, in 2006-7, Abe showed that he could moderate his stridency in the interests of easing tensions with China. One can hope that he will do so again. Viewed in a broad spectrum, the people of Japan voted for economic revival, not nationalist fantasies. As a nation that lives by trade, Japan needs to maintain harmonious relations with its main Asian trading partners, especially China.
Shinzo Abe’s catapult to power in Tokyo augurs well for the Obama administration, which has declared its intention to shift the United States’ focus to Asia, which is concurrently the center of the world’s economic growth and a potential source of long-term strategic challenges. Japan is the world’s third-largest economy, a technology leader, a stable democracy and “cornerstone ally” of the United States; the country is key to the success of the Obama policy.
Relations with India
Relations between India and Japan registered new strides during Abe’s priemership. Shinzō Abe’s three-day visit to India in August 2007 was said to be the start of a new Asian alliance, building on the long history of strong, friendly bilateral relations enjoyed by India and Japan. Abe proposed a “Broader Asia” alliance of democracies as a counterweight to China’s growing influence in the realm of economics and military power.
Abe’s initiative was seen to be the “fifth” bilateral link in this emerging scenario whereas the U.S.-Australia, U.S.-Japan, Japan-Australia, and U.S.-India links are already established. A sixth link of the India-Australia is said to be the logical corollary in an attempt to create a new quadrilateral of military cooperation which China has labeled the ‘Asian NATO.’
Abe’s India foreign policy was pragmatic, as it was based on boosting Japan’s resurgent economic indicators, while gaining a crucial partner in Asia. India, alone amongst all major Asian countries, does not have a history of serious military dispute with Japan.
During World War II, Japan became involved in the Indian freedom struggle through supporting Subhas Chandra Bose (a.k.a. Netaji) in order to mould large numbers of Indian British army deserters into the Indian National Army. This coupled with the lone dissenting judgement by the Indian judge Radhabinod Pal during the War Crime tribunal of Japanese Class A war criminals and the cultural impact of Buddhism, which originated in India, has endeared India to the Japanese.
In his historic address to the Indian Parliament in August 2007 Shinzo Abe said: “The Pacific and the Indian Oceans are “now bringing about a dynamic coupling as seas of freedom and of prosperity. A ‘Broader Asia’ that broke away geographical boundaries is now beginning to take on a distinct form. Our two countries have the ability — and the responsibility — to ensure that it broadens yet further and to nurture and enrich these seas to become seas of clearest transparence. This is the message I wish to deliver directly today to the one billion people of India. That is why I stand before you now in the Central Hall of the highest chamber, to speak with you, the people’s representatives of India. One can hope that Abe translates this vision into action in dealing with India in the months to come.
Undoubtedly, Japan’s relations with India are not so strong with India as compared with its long historical and cultural ties and deep economic relations with China. However, in the wake of unease between Tokyo and Beijing over Senkaku Island, coupled with the fact of Shinzo Abe’s rise to power, the prospects of further boost in India’s relations with Japan have increased.
Nevertheless, the economic and strategic importance of India to Japan is growing fast. The outgoing Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda’s visit to India in late December 2011 was followed by visits in early January 2012 by trade and industry minister Yukio Edano and infrastructure and transport minister Takeshi Maeda.
Japanese Prime Minister Noda and his Indian counterpart, Manmohan Singh, agreed on several points. Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Forces and the Indian Navy were to conduct their first joint exercise in 2012. Japan agreed to provide $4.5 billion over five years for the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor project. Both countries were to raise their currency swap ceiling from $3 billion to $15 billion to help India cope with the rapid withdrawal of foreign funds due to the gloomy world economy outlook. They were to push consultations to resume negotiations over bilateral nuclear energy cooperation.
As of October 2011, 812 Japanese firms had business bases in India, much smaller compared with the corresponding number in China — some 22,300 firms. Trade between Japan and India in that month was $14.7 billion, dwarfed by trade between Japan and China at $301.9 billion. But India has strong growth potential. It has achieved an average 8.4 percent annual economic growth for the past five years. As of the end of October, China had a population of 1.35 billion and India 1.24 billion. But India’s population is expected to reach 1.4 billion in 2021, topping that of China.
In August 2011, a free trade agreement between Japan and India came into force. The year 2012 marked the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties. By deepening ties with India, Japan can counter China, which is trying to increase its maritime influence, and can reduce the risk of excessive economic reliance on China. Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan must act carefully to avoid antagonizing China. In addition, nuclear energy cooperation with India could provoke public opposition as the Fukushima nuclear crisis simmers on.
